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Commercial Serodiagnostic Tests for Diagnosis of Tuberculosis: Policy Statement. Geneva: World Health Organization; 2011.

6GRADE Tables

Tables

Table 1Should commercial serological tests be used as a replacement test for conventional tests such as smear microscopy in patients suspected of having pulmonary tuberculosis?

OutcomeNo. studiesStudy DesignLimitationsIndirectnessInconsistencyImprecisionPublication biasFinal Quality1Effect per 1000Importance
True Positives67
(8318)A1
Cross-sectional and case-controlVery SeriousA2
(-2)
No Serious IndirectnessA3Very SeriousA4
(-2)
SeriousA5
(-1)
LikelyA6Very Low
⊕○○○
Prev 10%: 64
Prev 30%: 192
Critical
True Negatives67
(8318)A1
Cross-sectional and case-controlVery SeriousA2
(-2)
No Serious IndirectnessA3Very SeriousA4
(-2)
SeriousA5
(-1)
LikelyA6Very Low
⊕○○○
Prev 10%: 819
Prev 30%: 637
Critical
False Positives67
(8318)A1
Cross-sectional and case-controlVery SeriousA2
(-2)
No Serious IndirectnessA3Very SeriousA4
(-2)
SeriousA5
(-1)
LikelyA6Very Low
⊕○○○
Prev 10%: 81
Prev 30%: 63
Critical
False Negatives67
(8318)A1
Cross-sectional and case-controlVery SeriousA2
(-2)
No Serious IndirectnessA3Very SeriousA4
(-2)
SeriousA5
(-1)
LikelyA6Very Low
⊕○○○
Prev 10%: 36
Prev 30%: 108
Critical

Accuracy estimates were not pooled because of the considerable heterogeneity among studies. Based on sensitivity median = 64%, specificity median = 91%

1

Quality of evidence rated as high (no points subtracted), moderate (1 point subtracted), low (2 points subtracted), or very low (>2 points subtracted) based on five factors: study limitations, indirectness of evidence, inconsistency in results across studies, imprecision in summary estimates, and likelihood of publication bias. For each outcome, the quality of evidence started at high when there were randomized controlled trials or high quality observational studies (cross-sectional or cohort studies enrolling patients with diagnostic uncertainty) and at moderate when these types of studies were absent. One point was then subtracted when there was a serious issue identified or two points when there was a very serious issue identified in any of the criteria used to judge the quality of evidence.

A1

67 studies evaluated 18 commercial tests. 37/67 (55%) studies used a cross-sectional design and 30/67 (45%) studies used a case-control design.

A2

Study limitations were assessed using the QUADAS tool. Overall, study quality suffered from lack of a representative patient spectrum as only 19/67 (28%) studies were considered to include a representative sample (scored as yes when ambulatory patients suspected of having active TB were consecutively selected). 27/67 (40%) of studies recruited patients in a consecutive manner. 29/67 (43%) studies were conducted in an outpatient setting. Blinding of commercial test results was reported in 34/67 (51%) studies.

A3

Diagnostic accuracy was considered a surrogate for patient-important outcomes; therefore this factor was not downgraded. Uncertainty about directness for false-negatives relates to possible detrimental effects from delayed diagnosis and uncertain but likely deterioration of health status. Uncertainty about directness for false-positives relates to the following concerns: diagnosing other respiratory diseases (such as pneumonia) as pulmonary TB may lead to delayed diagnosis or death from the other disease; false-positives unnecessarily consume health care and patient resources through DOT administration and patient misclassification (resulting in potentially inappropriate treatment regimens); adverse drug reactions may increase. Only 32 (48%) studies were conducted in low/middle-income countries limiting generalisability to these settings.

A4

Heterogeneity was assessed visually and statistically. There was significant heterogeneity in accuracy estimates: sensitivity range 0% to 100%, I-square = 89.6%; p = 0.0000; specificity range 31% to 100%, I-square = 93.8%; p = 0.0000. In further analyses, subgroups were pre-specified by identity of commercial test, antibody detected, and smear status to decrease heterogeneity. Differing criteria for patient selection and greater duration and severity of illness of the study populations may have introduced variability in findings among studies. The heterogeneity between studies could also be explained by use of different cut-offs for positivity, a factor that could not be addressed.

A5

Accuracy estimates were not pooled. The 95% confidence intervals were wide for many individual studies; however, this factor was not downgraded as there were a large number of studies and 2 points had already been subtracted for inconsistency.

A6

Data included in the systematic review did not allow for formal assessment of publication bias using methods such as funnel plots or regression tests. Therefore, publication bias cannot be ruled out and it was considered prudent to assume a degree of publication bias as studies showing poor performance of commercial tests were probably less likely to be published. Industry involvement was recorded in 40/67 studies(32/40 involved donation of test kits)

Table 2Should commercial serological tests be used as an add-on to conventional tests such as smear microscopy in patients suspected of having pulmonary tuberculosis?

OutcomeNo. studiesStudy DesignLimitationsIndirectnessInconsistencyImprecisionPublication biasFinal QualityEffect per 1000Importance
True Positives28 (3433)B1Mainly cross-sectionalSeriousB2
(-1)
SeriousB3
(-1)
Very SeriousB4
(-2)
Serious ImprecisionB5
(-1)
LikelyB6Very Low
⊕○○○
Prev 10%: 61Critical
True Negatives28 (3433)Mainly cross-sectionalSeriousB2
(-1)
SeriousB3
(-1)
Very SeriousB4
(-2)
Serious ImprecisionB5
(-1)
LikelyB6Very Low
⊕○○○
Prev 10%: 828Critical
False Positives28 (3433)Mainly cross-sectionalSeriousB2
(-1)
SeriousB3
(-1)
Very SeriousB4
(-2)
Serious ImprecisionB5
(-1)
LikelyB6Very Low
⊕○○○
Prev 10%: 72Critical
False Negatives28 (3433)Mainly cross-sectionalSeriousB2
(-1)
SeriousB3
(-1)
Very SeriousB4
(-2)
Serious ImprecisionB5
(-1)
LikelyB6Very Low
⊕○○○
Prev 10%: 39Critical

Accuracy estimates were not pooled because of the considerable heterogeneity among studies. Based on sensitivity median = 61%, specificity median = 92%

B1

28 studies involving smear-negative patients were included; 21/28 (75%) used a cross-sectional design and 7/28 (25%) used a case-control design.

B2

Study limitations were assessed using the QUADAS tool. 17/28 (61%) studies recruited patients in a consecutive manner; 18/28 (64%) studies were conducted in an outpatient setting. Blinding of the commercial test result was reported in 18/28 (64%) studies.

B3

Diagnostic accuracy was considered a surrogate for patient-important outcomes (see A3). Indirectness was regarded as a greater concern if a commercial serological test is used as an ‘add on’ test, therefore this was downgraded one point. 16 (57%) were conducted in low/middle-income countries limiting generalisability to these settings.

B4

Heterogeneity was assessed visually and statistically. There was significant heterogeneity in accuracy estimates: sensitivity range 29 to 77%, I-square = 72.5%; p = 0.0000; specificity range 77 to 100%, I-square = 72.1%; p = 0.0000. Subgroups were pre-specified by identity of commercial test, antibody detected, and smear status to decrease heterogeneity. Differing criteria for patient selection and greater duration and severity of illness of the study populations may have introduced variability in findings among studies. The heterogeneity between studies could also be explained by use of different cut-offs for positivity, a factor that could not be addressed.

B5

Accuracy estimates were not pooled. The 95% confidence intervals were very wide for many individual studies; however, this factor was not downgraded as there were a large number of studies and 2 points had already been subtracted for inconsistency.

B6

Data included in the systematic review did not allow for formal assessment of publication bias using methods such as funnel plots or regression tests (see A6). Therefore, publication bias cannot be ruled out and it was considered prudent to assume a degree of publication bias as studies showing poor performance of commercial tests were probably less likely to be published.

Table 3Diagnostic accuracy of Anda-TB IgG

OutcomeNo. studiesStudy DesignLimitationsIndirectnessInconsistencyImprecisionPublication biasFinal QualityEffect per 1000Importance
True Positives7 (870)C1Mainly case-controlVery SeriousC2
(-2)
No Serious IndirectnessC3No Serious InconsistencyC4SeriousC5
(-1)
LikelyA6Very Low
⊕○○○
Prev 10%: 76
Prev 30%: 228
Critical
True Negatives7 (870)C1Mainly case-controlVery SeriousC2
(-2)
No Serious IndirectnessC3No Serious InconsistencyC4SeriousC5
(-1)
LikelyA6Very Low
⊕○○○
Prev 10%: 828
Prev 30%: 644
Critical
False Positives7 (870)C1Mainly case-controlVery SeriousC2
(-2)
No Serious IndirectnessC3No Serious InconsistencyC4SeriousC5
(-1)
LikelyA6Very Low
⊕○○○
Prev 10%: 72
Prev 30%: 56
Critical
False Negatives7 (870)C1Mainly case-controlVery SeriousC2
(-2)
No Serious IndirectnessC3No Serious InconsistencyC4SeriousC5
(-1)
LikelyA6Very Low
⊕○○○
Prev 10%: 24
Prev 30%: 72
Critical

Based on pooled sensitivity = 76% (95% CI 63 to 87%), pooled specificity = 92% (95% CI 74 to 98%)

C1

7 studies were included in smear-positive patients that evaluated Anda-TB IgG (Anda Biologicals, Strasbourg), an A60-based ELISA.

C2

Study limitations were assessed using the QUADAS tool. None of the studies was considered to have a representative spectrum (only 2/7 studies were conducted in an outpatient setting; 1/7 studies used a cross-sectional study design; and 1/7 studies reported selecting subjects in a consecutive manner). In 2/7 studies the index test was blinded and in 5/7 studies differential verification was avoided.

C3

Diagnostic accuracy was considered a surrogate for patient-important outcomes (see A3); only 1/7 studies was conducted in low/middle-income countries limiting generalisability to these settings.

C4

Heterogeneity was assessed by visual inspection of forest plots of sensitivity and specificity estimates. Sensitivity in the studies varied from 54% to 85% and specificity varied from 68% to 100%. However, except for two studies by the same author, the sensitivity estimates were consistent. Specificity estimates were more variable. Heterogeneity between studies could be explained by use of different cut-offs for positivity, a factor that could not be addressed.

C5

Accuracy estimates were pooled by bivariate meta-analysis. Pooled sensitivity and specificity had relatively wide confidence intervals: sensitivity 76% (95% CI 63% to 87%); specificity 92% (95% CI 74 to 98%).

C6

Data included in the systematic review did not allow for formal assessment of publication bias using methods such as funnel plots or regression tests. Therefore, publication bias cannot be ruled out and it was considered prudent to assume a degree of publication bias as studies showing poor performance of commercial tests were probably less likely to be published. This in turn may have introduced ‘optimism bias’ in the pooled estimates of sensitivity and specificity; nevertheless this factor was not downgraded.

Table 4Diagnostic accuracy of Anda-TB IgG in studies of smear-negative patients (i.e as an ‘add on’ test to smear microscopy)

OutcomeNo. studiesStudy DesignLimitationsIndirectnessInconsistencyImprecisionPublication biasFinal QualityEffect per 1000Importance
True Positives4 (700)D1Mainly case-controlVery SeriousD2
(-2)
SeriousD3
(-1)
No Serious InconsistencyD4Very SeriousD5
(-2)
LikelyD6Very Low
⊕○○○
Prev 10%: 59Critical
True Negatives4 (700)D1Mainly case-controlVery SeriousD2
(-2)
SeriousD3 (-1)No Serious InconsistencyD4Very SeriousD5
(-2)
LikelyD6Very Low
⊕○○○
Prev 10%: 819Critical
False Positives4 (700)D1Mainly case-controlVery SeriousD2
(-2)
SeriousD3 (-1)No Serious InconsistencyD4Very SeriousD5
(-2)
LikelyD6Very Low
⊕○○○
Prev 10%: 81Critical
False Negatives4 (700)D1Mainly case-controlVery SeriousD2
(-2)
SeriousD3 (-1)No Serious InconsistencyD4Very SeriousD5
(-2)
LikelyD6Very Low
⊕○○○
Prev 10%: 41Critical

Based on pooled sensitivity = 59% (95% CI 10 to 96%), pooled specificity = 91% (95% CI 79 to 96%)

D1

Four studies were included of smear-negative patients that evaluated Anda-TB IgG (Anda Biologicals, Strasbourg), an A60-based ELISA.

D2

Study limitations were assessed using the QUADAS tool. None of the studies was considered to have a representative spectrum (only one study was conducted in an outpatient setting; 2/4 studies used a cross-sectional study design; and 0/4 studies reported selecting subjects in a consecutive manner). In 1/4 studies the index test was blinded and in 1/4 studies differential verification was avoided.

D3

Diagnostic accuracy was considered a surrogate for patient-important outcomes (see A3). Indirectness was regarded as a greater concern if Anda-TB were used as an add-on test; this factor was therefore downgraded by one point. No studies were conducted in low/middle-income countries limiting generalizability to these settings.

D4

Heterogeneity was assessed by visual inspection of forest plots of accuracy estimates. The sensitivity varied from 35 to 73% and the specificity varied from 88 to 93%. However, except for one study, sensitivity was consistent and this factor was therefore not downgraded.

D5

Accuracy estimates were pooled by bivariate meta-analysis. Pooled sensitivity had very wide confidence intervals: sensitivity 59% (95% CI 10 to 96%); specificity 91% (95% CI 79 to 96%).

D6

Data included did not allow for formal assessment of publication bias using methods such as funnel plots or regression tests. Therefore, publication bias cannot be ruled out and it was considered prudent to assume a degree of publication bias as studies showing poor performance of commercial tests were probably less likely to be published. This in turn may have introduced ‘optimism bias’ in the pooled estimates of sensitivity and specificity; nevertheless, this factor was not downgraded.

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